The Early Days of a Better Nation |
Ken MacLeod's comments. “If these are the early days of a better nation, there must be hope, and a hope of peace is as good as any, and far better than a hollow hoarding greed or the dry lies of an aweless god.”—Graydon Saunders Contact: kenneth dot m dot macleod at gmail dot com Blog-related emails may be quoted unless you ask otherwise.
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Monday, November 03, 2008
From over here it looks scarily close. I don't believe the polls for a second. There's the Bradley effect thing. There's the Nader-under-the-radar thing. There's the far-left anyone-but-Obama thing. (There must be some college students who are swayed by that.) There's the whole voter suppression and Diebold machines thing. And then of course there's all the people who said they'd vote for Obama, see the polls showing him in the lead, and figure they don't need to vote. Young voters? I'd rely on young voters to hit the snooze button. Most of all, though, there's the paradox that while nearly all the Americans I know personally are Obama supporters, and the sort of America Obama projects is very much the America I've seen when I've visited, I know that's only a fraction of America, and that the America I know from the outside is reflected perfectly in McCain-Palin. I can't help feeling it's out there, lurking. It's true that a reverse between opinion polls and actual votes on this scale would be unprecedented, but this is an unprecedented election. Still, I'm not going to obsess about it. It's no skin off my nose. I don't live in the US, and I'm a science-fiction writer. If McCain-Palin win, I can look forward to a good decade or more of easy money from cheap gloom and cheap laughs. The rise of Nehemiah Scudder in a skirt and the devolution of the US into Gilead or some other dystopia would score me a fair few mainstream press pieces ('Can you do us 800 words on how you, as a science fiction writer, see ..?' Kaa-ching!) Sure, I have family in America, but by the same token they have family over here. We can put them up if necessary. Really, we can. But if you live there and you want Obama to win, it might be a good idea to vote for him. That's all I'm saying. 33 Comments:Heh. The last time my State voted for a Republican, it was Reagan the first time, and before that it was Ike, and before -that- it was Hoover's first term and Socialists could expect to get hundreds of thousands of votes... all of whom swept states in a way that McCain most certainly won't... so I'm not too ashamed about planning to vote for someone who's okay with gay marriage and who is against bombing nominal allies. The McCain/Palin axis is a minority, but as Robert Heinlein put it when inventing Nehemiah Scudder (I think I was one of the first persons to describe Palin as Scudder in a skirt, BTW) "a combination of a dynamic evangelist, television, enough money, and modern techniques of advertising and propaganda might make [earlier] efforts look like a corner store compared to Sears Roebuck. Throw in a depression for good measure, promise a material heaven here on earth, add a dash of anti-Semitism, anti-Catholicism, anti-Negroism, and a good large dose of anti-'furriners' in general and anti-intellectuals here at home and the result might be something quite frightening--particularly when one recalls that our voting system is such that a minority distributed as pluralities in enough states can constitute a working majority in Washington."
Ken, that's a really dumb anti-Nader screed you linked. There are much better arguments out there.
Srsly folks, I don't think Obama will change the world. I don't even think he'll change the USA.
I'll be voting for Obama in less than twelve hours now, at my polling place in Obama's very own neighborhood. I have my quibbles with Obama, but he represents a much better choice than McCain. As to the Nader option, I refused to sign a ballot access petition here in Illinois for the first time ever when I was approached this year by a Nader volunteer. For crying out loud, just what do they think they are working towards? What human good can it amount to?
I'm glad you seem to be more at peace with the possibility of a Republican Presidency than you once were, because I think it's very, very likely that the americans'll get one for all the reasons you mentioned.
I'm glad to have you saying this, though it doesn't affect me personally; I decided to vote for Obama months ago, and McCain's picking Palin nailed the coffin of his candidacy shut as far as I was concerned. Though my vote won't make much difference, because I'm in California, which has a vanishingly small chance of going for McCain. I'm more personally concerned with Proposition 8, which Charles Stross has just blogged about in his "go out and vote, dammit!" post. The far left is incredibly insignificant in America, even among college students. It's not going to have any impact on the election.
I also hope to see Irish-American candidate Barack O'Bama win today. As for who really speaks for the 'other America' - the one that was captured by the she-Devil of Wasilla and her satanic minions - I recommend you beg, borrow, or steal (or even buy) a copy of John Bageant's _Deer Hunting with Jesus_. Bageant is a proud redneck, but it's not only his neck that's red, the same is true of his politics. He is very very hard on both the Republicans who have organised brutal exploitation of the American workers, and denied them adequate health care and equally hard on the smug middle-class pseudo-liberals who abandoned the US working classes to their fate long ago. Those of you keen on second amendment rights will also enjoy his stirring defence of same.
I saw several blog and other posts last week with nice graphs showing that the Bradley effect disappeared through the 90's and now doesn't exist. Therefore it should not be worried about. Unfortunately I can't now find said posts.
Kal, you remind me a Nader voter I overheard in a pub here in Central Europe. He was, he loudly proclaimed, one of those... people... who voted for Nader in Florida. The (English) bloke who was with him gasped as this was revealed to the entire pub. The Nader-wit said something like 'it's important that the left not be forgotten'.
I voted for McKinney, not Nader, and I live in Massachusetts...
Tim - I don't think Nader has been forgotten, exactly. But congrats to you, unlike Bernstein, for at least gesturing towards an actual argument. b - I am not sure what you mean by the null hypothesis. If you mean that a world where the US is not an empire is simply impossible, then, well, as I said, on historical grounds I would disagree. Empires fall. Social systems are revolutionized. On the scale of decades and centuries these things happen fairly often. It hasn't been twenty years since the last collapse of a superpower.
Eh. I think the impact will be pretty minimal, particularly given the situation this year (Nader, McKinney et al running unexciting campaigns and McCain with a ~2% chance of victory), but it doesn't have to be much to be greater than zero. And filling out an absentee ballot is easy. Well, the networks have just called it for Obama, and reported McCain's concession. Let's hope this will be the early days of a better nation. I remember talking to a friend of mine who voted for Nader in the Bush/Gore race, because he thought there was no real difference between the major party candidates. As soon as Bush won, however, he admitted that he regretted his decision, as well as that of all of his fellow Nader supporters, because as unappealing as "the lesser of the two evils" sounds, it's still an important distinction. All that to say that regardless of the problems associated with our two party system, I'm very happy that I voted for Obama... especially as I'm currently living in a battleground state!
P.S.
And let the record show that Vanderburgh County, Indiana, delivered for Obama. Thanks doubtless to the 180 doors that me and my buddies knocked on in the last four hours of election day! James, I only found out today that Iniana had swung (I've been away from the internets) and I've been thinking how delighted you must be. I'm almost saddened by the Obama win, if only because I was looking forward to another rant like "Like a Death; or, Altogether Elsewhere, Vast" (Nov. 9th, 2004) this time around.
Anyway, back to the Scots.
Randolph, sorry I forgot the phrase was your coinage (I must have seen it on Making Light). That Heinlein quote is remarkably apt.
I can't recall "If This Goes On" though I did read a lot of Heinlein at one time, though I did see a review of his work by Charles Platt once that suggested that it's not surpising that Charles Manson was reading "Stranger In A Strange Land" at the time of his arrest. Redfag, thanks for the kind words. Steve, I'm happy to trade the chance for a rant against an actual positive development ... Personally I think The One with "a combination of a dynamic evangelist, television, enough money, and modern techniques of advertising" is rather closer to the inspirational Nehemiah Scudder & Palin to the Jeffersonian ideal of small town democracy, but we shall see.
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Voted for him two weeks ago. I'm a conservative, but the worst government the US gets is a crooked party Congress with a stupid party beard Executive.
Besides, first black president- even if he's just another Shy-town outfit guy.
Bruce
By Anonymous, at Monday, November 03, 2008 9:50:00 pm